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Does the Fed funds futures curve really show the Fed trimming rates into year end?
What does the Fed fund futures curve really imply?
Right now it shows rates at 4.44% at year end. That's far from the 5.00-5.25% that the Fed is forecasting via the dot plot but be careful as interpreting that as the market thinking the Fed will start cutting.
The 4.44% rate at year end is a probability-weighted number and shows the pitfalls of assuming that market participants have settled on a single number. Instead, think of it as the intersection of a range of possibilities. Read More
Posted: Jan 11 2023, 20:08
Author Name: forexlive
Views: 102637
