TBT / TBT ETF: Still An Excellent Hedge But Not Much Upside Left

TBT remains a Buy as the bond market shows downward momentum, and there are likely more advances in store for TBT price and volume. The effects of the more_horizontal

The Treasury term premium is back above zero, indicating that investors are demanding higher yields for long-dated Treasuries. The ProShares UltraShor more_horizontal

Financial systems are shaking all around the world. I expect the processes to accelerate in the second half of this year due to liquidity withdrawals more_horizontal

The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and economic indicators suggest that unemployment is rising close to where it should be and inflation is falling. more_horizontal

Treasury bonds have faced underperformance due to unexpected inflation levels, but recent trends indicate a decrease in inflation. The combination of more_horizontal

TBT is an inverse ETF that appreciates when long-dated Treasury bonds sell off and rates move higher. The fund was a big winner in 2022 amid the bond more_horizontal

TBT provides -2x 1-day returns of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. Betting against long-bonds have been the right trade in 2022, with the TB more_horizontal

Investors who think TBT stock will continue to rally and don't want to risk significant amounts of capital can use long call options rather than buyin more_horizontal