TLH / TLH: Duration Still Dangerous

The TLH is a duration bet that may not be favorable in the current interest rate environment. We believe higher rates will be needed in 2024 and even more_horizontal

Long-term bonds look appealing to Wells Fargo Investment Institute after they were hurt by a surge in yields. more_horizontal

Shares of exchange-traded funds that buy U.S. Treasury bonds with long-term maturities fell Monday, after three straight weeks of declines, as Goldman more_horizontal

TLH is a long-duration bet in a risky environment for long-duration plays. Long-term rates are in flux, and it concerns how difficult the last leg of more_horizontal

TLH holds treasury bonds in the 10-20 year range. For leaving the safety of shorter-term yields, you get the double penalty of lower yields and higher more_horizontal

I am bullish on Treasuries at the 3.8-4% level on the 10-year. TLH presents an attractive proposition after its +20% drawdown since late 2021 and amid more_horizontal

TLH owns a portfolio of U.S. treasuries with an average maturity year of 17.4 years. If inflation can cool down quickly, investors will benefit not on more_horizontal

Powell spoke on Wednesday, and markets had mixed feelings on what he had to say. Still, markets are getting more excited about duration now that the b more_horizontal